Yaroslav M. Ivanyo, Sofia A. Petrova, Marina N. Polkovskaya

Irkutsk State Agrarian University named after A.A. Ezhevsky

Agricultural production is exposed to a significant number of external factors affecting the performance of agricultural enterprises, of which the most significant impact is different hydrometeorological phenomena. Effective planning of obtaining agricultural products is associated with taking into account, first of all, natural risks. The paper considers a two-stage model for optimizing the location of agricultural crops, which takes into account the impact of negative natural phenomena on the production of agricultural products.
The use of a multi-stage extreme task is due to the fact that planning at the next step (usually a year) depends on the previous result. At the same time, the model uses parameters characterizing the effect of one or several extreme climatic phenomena on the production of agricultural products. The proposed two-stage model with probabilistic parameters is realized for the agricultural enterprise of the Irkutsk region, taking into account the effect of a severe drought.

optimization of crop structure, crop rotation, linear programming problem, two-stage model, risks