Yuriy E. Obzherin, Stanislav M. Sidorov, Sergey N. Fedorenko

Sevastopol State University

The problem of assessing the reliability and analyzing the functioning of an autonomous wind-diesel complex is considered. Its semi-Markov and hidden Markov models are constructed. A hidden Markov model is used to find performance estimates for an autonomous wind-diesel complex and predict its states based on the resulting signal vector. The results of the study are obtained in a general form and are invariant with respect to the laws of distribution of random variables describing the elements. They make it possible to predict the operating modes of an autonomous wind-diesel complex.

wind diesel complex, semi-Markov model, hidden Markov model, performance analysis, forecasting