Yaroslav M. Ivanyo, Irina M. Kolokoltseva

Irkutsk state agricultural university named after A.A. Yezhevsky

To solve the problems of optimizing the production volumes of crop production, taking into account the impact of locust pests on the harvest, a parametric programming model with probabilistic characteristics has been developed. Air temperatures and precipitation during the initial growing season, which affect the number of locust pests, were determined as parameters. Three variants of the mathematical model are distinguished: the absence of the influence of locusts on the income of an agricultural organization; the different influence of locusts on the economic indicator; the maximum possible impact of pests with a probabilistic assessment of the situation. Algorithms for solving extreme problems are proposed. The models and algorithms have been tested on the data of the agricultural organization CJSC Irkutsk Seeds of the Irkutsk region.

parametric optimization, factor model, locust pests, agricultural products, losses, statistical testing method