Eugenia A. Kovaleva, Yaroslav M. Ivanyo

Irkutsk State Agrarian University named after A.A. Ezhevsky

On the basis of the created software package, special information, mathematical and algorithmic support is proposed for the module "Planning under risk conditions" of the software package "Ecological and mathematical modeling of agricultural production". A parametric ecological and mathematical model for optimizing the production of agricultural products, taking into account the risks associated with climatic events, is described. With the help of an algorithm for identifying abnormal levels by constructing multilevel trends and stochastic analysis, production risks in the future are estimated with the determination of damages from crop loss. The test tasks were implemented on the example of the agricultural organization of the Irkutsk region of the Primorsky Agricultural District of the Nukutsky district, whose activities are significantly affected by the risks associated with extreme climatic events, primarily droughts. Multilevel trends are based on the example of a time series of grain yields.

software package, ecological and mathematical model, optimization, agricultural products, risks