Tatsiana G. Zoryna

Institute of Power Engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus

The article deals with the development of nuclear energy in the Republic of Belarus in the context of sustainable energy development. Based on the author's methodology, an analysis was made of the dynamics of sustainable energy development of the Republic of Belarus in 1995-2020. The directions of sustainable energy development of the Republic of Belarus up to 2030 have been determined. A formalized model of the energy system of the Republic of Belarus has been built, an initial data base has been collected for modeling the energy production of electric energy for the medium term in the MESSAGE program. Scenarios for the development of the energy system of the Republic of Belarus are constructed, taking into account the commissioning of the Belarusian nuclear power plant, depending on different rates of growth in demand for electricity. The forecasts of production and cost of electric energy in the energy system of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2050 were made according to the selected scenarios. A comparative analysis of the simulation results was carried out according to the following criteria: the structure of energy production, the volume and structure of commissioned capacities, fuel consumption for electricity generation, and the cost of electricity

sustainable energy development, sustainable energy development index, structure of energy production, nuclear energy, MESSAGE, scenario modeling, energy system of the Republic of Belarus, production cost of electricity