Yuri D. Kononov, Dmitry Yu. Kononov

Melentiev Energy Systems Institute SB RAS

This study considers the issue of extending the existing methods of indicator-based analysis of the current energy security (ES) performance to a comprehensive assessment of options for the development of energy systems. The relevance of the above issue is due to the increasing uncertainty of the future, including the beginning of the transition to a low-carbon strategy. The study proposes a mix of metrics that varies depending on the time frame covered and takes into account the economic and environmental aspects of ES. An approach to assessing the significance of individual metrics in the formation of comprehensive overall metrics of the ES performance is outlined. The results of optimization calculations to assess changes in such metrics for two options for power supply of the European Russia and the Ural are presented. These options differ in the cost of fuel for power plants (in the second option, gas is 25% more expensive and coal 5% more expensive than in the first option). The rising cost of fuel affects the mix of capacity additions in different regions, increasing the share of carbon-free plants and reducing CO2 emissions. However, this increases the cost of generating electricity and risks for potential investors. The overall metric of ES takes into account this multidirectional influence. Its growth indicates that the first option is more preferable from the standpoint of ES. It is concluded that it is possible and expedient to use this kind of metrics as an additional performance criterion when comparing options for the development of the energy sector and the regional system of energy supply. As the projection time frame increases, the number of the metrics used should decrease, and the importance of the economic and environmental aspects of ES will grow.

energy security, indicator-based analysis, forecasting, optimization