Nikolay I. Ilkevich, Tatyana V. Dzyubina, Zhanna V. Kalinina

Melentiev Energy Systems Institute of Siberian branch of Russian Academy of Science

The Relevance of the research is due to the need for active gasification of large territorial entities (new residential agglomerations under construction, cottage and dacha settlements, as well as large industrial complexes). On the other hand, the increase in the total length of gas distribution systems and the complexity of the configuration of gas pipeline schemes continues. These factors affect the reliability of the gas distribution systems and place high demands on the part of energy consumers for trouble-free operation. Purpose. The main initial reliability information used for analyzing the reliability of gas pipelines is the failure rates of its elements: individual sections of the linear part, gas pumping units, etc., and the recovery rates of these elements. These indicators characterize such properties of reliability as reliability and maintainability. The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of reliability and maintainability of equipment on the integral reliability indicators of the gas distribution system (GDS). These include the expectation, variance and standard deviation of the throughput of the GDS, as well as the reliability coefficient of the pipeline. Methods: equivalent methods, analytical method at the level of random Markov processes - the scheme of "death and reproduction", the theorem of addition and multiplication of probabilities, the composition of distribution series; mathematical model of reliability analysis of the designed main gas pipeline. Results. On the basis of a mathematical model for assessing the reliability of the designed main gas pipeline and the developed computational program, calculations were performed to determine the integral indicators of the reliability of the conventional gas distribution system. So, studies have shown that when the initial reliability indicators (failure rates and recoveries) of the GDS elements are changed by the same amount, their effect on the change in the integral reliability indicators of the GDS has a different effect. Conclusion. On the basis of the proposed mathematical model for analyzing the reliability of the GDS, the influence of the failure rate indicators and the recovery rate of elements characterizing the reliability and maintainability of gas transmission systems on its integral reliability indicators, in particular, on the reliability coefficient, is shown.

gas distribution systems, mathematical model, reliability assessment, integral indicators of reliability, failure rates and recoveries