Tatsiana G. Zoryna

Institute of power engineering of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus of Belarus

The article deals with the development of renewable energy in the Republic of Belarus. A formalized model of the energy system of the Republic of Belarus has been built, a base of initial data has been collected for modeling energy production of electrical energy for a medium-term period in the MESSAGE program. Three scenarios for the development of renewable energy in the Republic of Belarus have been constructed, which provide for a different share of renewable sources in the overall structure of energy production. Forecasts of electricity production in the energy system of the Republic of Belarus for the period up to 2030 have been made according to the selected scenarios. A comparative analysis of the simulation results was carried out according to the following criteria: structure of energy production, volumes and structure of commissioned capacities, production cost of electric energy.

structure of energy production, renewable energy sources, MESSAGE, scenario modeling, energy system of the Republic of Belarus, production cost of electrical energy