RISK ASSESSMENT OF NATURAL AND TECHNOGENIC THREATS TO RESILIENCE OF ENERGY, ECOLOGY AND SOCIAL SYSTEMS BASED ON INTELLIGENT INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES
Lyudmila V. Massel, Nadezhda P. Komendantova
Institute of Energy Systems L.A. Melentyev SB RAS, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),
The article discusses the prerequisites for the implementation of a joint project planned by the teams of the Institute of Energy Systems named after L.A. Melentyev SB RAS (Russia, Irkutsk) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) (Laxenburg, Austria). It is of interest to compare the approaches to resilience studies developed at ISEM SB RAS and IIASA. The definition of different types of resilience, considered in international practice, is given, the studies of the field of energy and environmental safety and quality of life in RF are analyzed. On the Russian side, it is planned to carry out a project for the Baikal natural territory, partially including the territory of the Irkutsk region, the Republic of Buryatia and the Zabaikalskiy region. Intelligent information technologies developed in the ISEM SB RAS team of scientists will be applied, based primarily on the methods of cognitive and probabilistic (based on Bayesian trust networks) modeling.
resilience of energy, ecology and social systems, natural and technogenic threats, risk assessment, intelligent information technology, cognitive and probabilistic modeling